Saturday, August 2, 2008

United Nations IPCC Uncertainties About Man-Caused Global Warming

This information is buried in the back pages of the latest United Nations report on global warming and climate change. It is overlooked by most and ignored by the mainstream media. However, it is recorded by one of our ever-vigilant members of "The Fellowship Of Scientific Truth". The point is, is this the kind of scientific "consensus" that we should be spending BILLIONS of dollars on trying to control global warming and climate change, by the United Nations own admission?

Thanks to "Grillednutria" published here.

From Technical Papers, Chapter 8 IPCC report.

8.2.1 Understanding and projecting climate change
Major uncertainties in understanding and modelling changes in climate relating to the hydrological cycle include the following [SYR; WGI TS.6]:

• Changes in a number of radiative drivers of climate are not fully quantified and understood (e.g., aerosols and their effects on cloud properties, methane, ozone, stratospheric water vapour, land-use change, past solar variations).

• Confidence in attributing some observed climate change phenomena to anthropogenic or natural processes is limited by uncertainties in radiative forcing, as well as by uncertainty in processes and observations. Attribution becomes more difficult at smaller spatial and temporal scales, and there is less confidence in understanding precipitation changes than there is for temperature. There are very few attribution studies for changes in extreme events.

• Uncertainty in modelling some modes of climate variability, and of the distribution of precipitation between heavy and light events, remains large. In many regions, projections of changes in mean precipitation also vary widely between models, even in the sign of the change. It is necessary to improve understanding of the sources of uncertainty.

• In many regions where fine spatial scales in climate regenerated by topography, there is insufficient information on how climate change will be expressed at these scales.

• Climate models remain limited by the spatial resolution and ensemble size that can be achieved with present computer resources, by the need to include some additional processes, and by large uncertainties in the modelling of certain feedbacks (e.g., from clouds and the carbon cycle).

• Limited knowledge of ice sheet and ice shelf processes leads to unquantified uncertainties in projections of future ice sheet mass balance, leading in turn to uncertainty in sealevel rise projections.

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